Gillard politically sore, but not censured

Spooner Cartoon: Courtesy of the National Times

The Gillard government can't seem to win a trick at the moment. Be it the much debated (and despised) Carbon Tax, proposal to enforce plain packaging of cigarettes, to even the Malaysian solution. All have served to only drive Labor lower in the polls. Though this outcome can be expected from a government that lacks the nuance to sell their own successes, especially in contrast to a powerfully articulate and dogmatic opposition. With the Gillard government trying to push through large, often quite unpopular policies, it has come with little surprise that a motion to condemn Gillard's "Malaysia" solution has come about.

Condemnation of government policy from the Parliament is unheard of. That is because the government of the day makes up the majority of the Parliament, and so no condemnation motions are able to pass. Though in the case of a minority government, as Gillard herself admitted, the circumstance of policy being condemned is more likely. However seeing a policy condemned, rather than it not being passed, is more interesting. Foreign policy (which the Malaysian solution comes under) is directed by the executive (Government) without the need for Parliament's approval. This means that it's the government's decision alone when it comes to foreign policy. Unlike normal policy, which gets put before the Parliament, foreign policy does not. This means that the Parliament gets very little time or place to object to it, apart from MPs and Senators airing their views in the Media. However this may change when the Greens move to propose a bill requiring refugee and asylum seeker foreign policy to be put before the Parliament, instead of leaving that power to the executive. As the minority Gillard government couldn't knock down the condemnation motion, it is most likely that they won't be able to thwart the Greens and Parliament's attempts to strip the executive of this power.

Despite the condemnation motion passing, the very motivation behind it was mere coincidence, rather than mass Parliament outrage at the Malaysia solution. The motion only got support when the Liberal/National coalition and Greens finally managed to agree on something. For the Greens, it's the view that offshore processing is inhumane and wrong. For the Liberals/Nationals, it's the view that the Labor party is just plain wrong. While the general agreement between these parties led to a condemnation of the government's policy, it wasn't strong enough to censure the Prime Minister, as the Greens thought such a move would just be a mere political "stunt". Following Tony Abbott's belittling questions to Gillard about the history of such a motion, and Julie Bishops comparison of Julia Gillard to a third world dictator, it's hard to view these comments as anything less than a stunt.

The Malaysian solution is yet again a fizzle of a policy for the Gillard government. When the Labor party isn't chasing opinion polls to ensure support, it isn't successfully managing its image of being a strong government. The merits of an 800 possible refugee swap for thousands more is ludicrous. Even though Malaysia appears to be signing up to the UNHCR, the likely hood of its signatory resulting in better treatment of human rights is a stretch.

Despite the condemnation motion, Labor (if still in government) will pursue ahead with the Malaysia solution. Maybe after that, the polls will start to pick back up. But until then, unless Labor and Gillard manage to woo the public with strong effective policy, they'll have to withstand the tense time of being down in the polls.

Links: 
PM under fire over Malaysia deal - National Times

Parliament condemns Govt on Malaysia asylum deal - The World Today: ABC online

Defiant PM says it's not about polls - National Times

Asylum-seeker swap deal must have UNHCR approval - The Australian 

PM avoids censure as Malaysia deal condemned - ABC Online

This is not just a minor win for Gillard

It’s not going to be ‘business as usual’ in Canberra anymore. Julia Gillard just managed to make government, but that doesn’t mean she has a mandate to govern. The mandate “swear jar” proposed by Rob Oakshott sounds like a good idea. Thought just like his “unity cabinet” proposal, it’ll be tabled as a cabinet agenda item just under 'world peace'. But as a few political doomsdayists  pack their bags for NewZealand, the rest of the world is welcoming Australia to the "minority" club. Currently, minority governments in the western world are the norm. Both Canada and Britain have them, not to mention previous minority state governments in Victoria and a current Labor/Green minority government in Tasmania. Having a government that need the support of the parliament  parliament and its sitting MPs, combined with structural reforms to the way parliament operates, will be a nice change (if nothing else). 

Though the first thing that needs to be cleared up before parliament sits is the term 'mandate'. If you look it up in a dictionary, it states that it's an official order or commission to do something. So when an MP is elected to parliament, regardless of party or whether they're part of the government, they have a mandate to represent their electorate because their electorate voted for them. Previously, a party could claim to have a mandate to govern the nation and form government when it clearly held the majority in the House of Representatives. So before we pull out Rob Oakshott's 'mandate', rules should be drawn up. Every MP in parliament has a mandate to look after their electorate, and in this political situation where every MP counts in order to pass legislation, we're more likely to see MPs serving their electorate rather than following party lines. This shift towards US style politics, where party lines are seen more like 'guidelines' rather than holy scripture, will create a more dynamic and representative parliament. Yes, inner city suburban interests will clash with rural and country Australia issues. But because each MP represent the same proportion of people (not the same geographical area), it all works out in the wash in the end. With more MPs like Malcolm Turnbull willing to cross the floor for specific issues, will remove power from political leaders (from all the parties). This will force leaders to acknowledge the demands of caucus and the parliament, and ultimately be more flexible. It's hard to envisage what exactly is going to occur. If Labor loose just one MP, government could be handed over to the Coalition unless someone else decides to cross the floor. Only time will tell. 

While many eyes and ears have been focusing on the 3 Independents in regards to their choice of party to support, and then for what reasons, significant changes to the functioning of parliament have been signed off by both sides of politics; albeit with some resistance. The first major change is the restructuring of question time. Questions will be limited to 45 seconds and answers cut off at 4 minutes. Pity this couldn't have been applied retrospectively to Rob Oakshott's decision speech. Questions and their answers must be relevant, as dictated by the discretion of the speaker. There will also be two speakers, one from each side of the house. Both will act as quasi independents who won't have a vote. Thus the government isn't disadvantaged by loosing a vote. A new committee will also be set up. Though this committee will vet bills before they reach parliament, weeding out those that are just designed to waste time. To what extent this committee is going to be held to account for its decisions however, is questionable. It may be good at stopping some of Katter's crazier policies from being submitted, though it could equally prevent some progressive polices from being entertained. But if formulated and executed right, it will make parliament more efficient. 

Over the coming days and weeks, Gillard will be doing her all to stop the Labor party from descending into chaos. She will also be trying to determine how she'll be able to pass the legislation she wants by getting support from the parliament. This government can't just rally the troops to blindly support it's policy. She has to sell it, convince the parliament that it's not only in the national interest, but also in the interest of each MPs and his/her electorate. The Coalition and Abbott, if they receive the numbers, could introduce their own legislation and get it passed. The Greens and Independents are hoping to do likewise. Whether this can be achieved or not, is yet to be seen.

Links:

Trio get their wishes on changes to Parliament - The Age
Gillard all smiles but it could end in tears - National Times
First cracks appear - The Age
Rob Oakeshott and Wayne Swan collide on mining tax - The Australian
Leaders face drama of rewarding their political victims - National Times
Gillard calls on Labor to stop the leaks - National Times

Australia joins a crowded global club where minorities rule - National Times

Mad Hatter Katter

The election has come and gone. Well, sort of. A hung parliament is guaranteed and people are still in shock about the dramatic swing in favour towards both the Liberals and the Greens. The message for Gillard is loud and clear. But time will only tell if she's prepared to listen. Though in the meantime, the 3 independents; Bob Katter, Rob Oakshott and Tony Windsor get to play "pick the government". The Greens and Wilkie have pledged their allegiance to the ALP, which at this point, puts them 74 to the Coalitions 73 (including all already pledged allegiances). But it's Bob Katter who's kicking up a media storm in Canberra. The infamous independent politician that has made eyebrow raising remarks about the appearance of women in the outback, to advocating stronger protectionist policies and government controlled interest rates, may make or break a minority government. Though while Bob Katter and I disagree on a number of issues, there are some benefits that will arise from this political mess. But firstly, on the points we disagree on. 

Apart from being a politician that is a pleasant to listen to as fingernails down a blackboard, Bob Katter can occasionally crack out a smile which then makes you wish he hadn't. After seeing his endless rambles on the 7.30 report and other programs, I've come to the conclusion that it's his policies that really grate with me. As Katter gets to be one of the lucky three to choose who is going to be the next government, a brief view of his proposed 20 point plan, submitted to both major parties, is something of an eye-opener into the 'mad hatter Katter' world of politics and policy. 

1. No carbon tax, no ETS - not being a believer in climate change, his view fits perfectly in line with the right faction of the Coalition. Thus his ability to squash any new environmental bills the Greens want to submit will make for entertaining, yet ultimately depressing politics. 
2. No mining tax - despite its numerous economic benefits and support from economists around the globe, this is another example of a politician in the pockets of the big miners. 
3. More protectionist policies - while it's always good to make sure Australian industries are not swamped by overseas competitors, such staunch and rigorous protectionist policies would cripple other industries ability to access free trade deals (like mining!), let alone raise the cost of imports, which would add to inflation.... and the list goes on. 
4. Greater government control of interest rates and the lowering of the dollar - I agree with the point our dollar should be lowered, but government intervention to do so... that's heading down the China road (and they're not too popular at the moment for that very reason). But government controlled interest rates! I question Katter's basic understanding of economics. The Reserve Bank sets interest rates according to Australia's rate of economic growth to maintain low inflation over the long term. Giving this power back to government's would result in governments manipulating interest rates in the short term for political reasons, without having much regard for long term economic effects. 

Another interesting Bob Katter reference includes his views on gay marriage. When asked what his stance was, he said "There are no gays in my electorate". I guess that's a no. But it's Bob's election advertisement that's something to be seen. 

But while 'mad hatter Katter' may be the new Wilson Tuckey of the parliament, but with a serious grip on power, what he represents as a powerful independent MP can't be denied. He's a breath of fresh air in a staling political system. 

Being an independent and not beholden to party lines, he is able to truly represent his electorate. He stands for land rights, fishing and shooting rights, rural benefits and parliament reformation. Having previously sat as an independent in parliament with little air time or ability to affect legislation, he's taking the chance to reform the system so even when there isn't a hung parliament, the government doesn't get to always dominate in the House of Representatives. But he's also introducing new ideas and policy. A national energy grid, elimination of biofuel excise and new policy about regulating the food retail industries oligopoly, just to name a few. He's a man with different ideas. Some are that right or left of field they take you by surprise, but others are serious issues that have been ignored by the major parties for fear taking a too hard a line. 

But now it's time for both sides, the ALP and Coalition, not just to work out what they can offer these three independents (now affectionately as the "block"), but what they can deliver for them through this vastly different parliament. Going back to the polls sometime soon is the most likely situation, because of the independents holding the balance of power in the House or Representatives, and the Greens (next year) holding the balance of power in the Senate. But until then, let's hope Bob Katter not only makes an informed choice about whom to make a minority government with, but that he also sit down and have a chat with someone from Treasury, regarding some of his proposed economic polices. 

Links:

Bob Katter's 20-point wish list - WA today

Bob Katter says jury still out on whether he'll support Labor or Coalition - The Australian 

Abbott digs himself a hole - National Times (not an article specifically on Katter, but a general overview of this week in politics)

2010 Federal Election: it finally begins

I considered writing about the 2010 Federal Election once it was called, but in all honesty, I couldn't be bothered. Parties and candidates had careful, pre written scripts and sound-bites, and everyone was playing it safe. Policies were thrown out like tidbits, with only a few in marginal electorates willing to swallow them up. But it's now only a week until the polls, and the heat is on. This is the week that makes or breaks a party, shapes the publics opinion about what type of leader each party has. Enter the real Julia, enter the 'underdog' Abbott, enter all minor parties (sorry, that includes you Bob Brown) who are vying desperately for attention and votes. I can't give a summary of the whole campaign thus far in a single post, but what I hope to give is a snapshot of what's occurring, and insight into each leader, campaign and their policies.

The leaders

1. Julia Gillard - highly competent and good with sound-bites. The 'real Julia' isn't scripted, but neither is she a loose cannon. Like Barack Obama, she isn't playing up her stark opposition to all the other candidates (gender in this case, instead of race), however her method of gaining power has ultimately undermined some of her credibility. 
2. Tony Abbott - a robust politician who's been around long enough to know how the political game works. Has run a highly successful ad campaign with tweet length policy statements. A defeat at the election will assuredly result in his removal from leader, though if he became PM, the marginal supporter base that got him to the position of opposition leader would swell. 
3. Bob Brown - asks tough questions and attempts to bring back issues that both major parties often (conveniently) forget. Because of his age, engaging with the younger demographic of Greens voters is an issue, as across TV he comes across as very stoic. Though he's very enlivened on radio. 

The campaigns

If you don't live in a marginal seat, especially west Sydney or southern Queensland, it's understandable if you don't know an election is occurring. The obviously disproportionate amount of time each party is concentrating and pork-barreling marginal seats is disgraceful, but I guess this is modern democracy at work.

• Labor - currently running a huge fear campaign nation wide against Tony Abbott. It's cheap and dirty, but it's eating away at the gains Abbott has made in the first 3 weeks of the campaign. 
• Liberals/Coalition - arguably have run a fear campaign from the start (stop the waste, stop the taxes, stop the boats and pay back the debt). Though unless they can change their rhetoric or find mud to sling back at Gillard apart from the old "Labor can't manage the economy, voters who are moved by fear campaigns will be swayed more by Labor. 
• Nationals - best jingle for their ad. It makes "stand up Australia" sound even more corny that it already is. The best ad of the campaign thus far. 
• Greens - horrible original ad, but Gruen Nation made a better one for them (that otherwise would have been the best). But because it was commissioned by the ABC, it can't be used. 
• Get up! - clearly the winner in this election, for running the best ads, campaigns and promoting issues better than any other party. It says a lot about the power of lobby groups. When it attacks a party/candidate, it really hits hard! 

The policies

Here is a very brief overview of some of the policies that have been flagged and have become issues within this election. As the week progress, new topics (hopefully about Indigenous affairs or something of equal note) should arise, rather than the typical (but almost guaranteed) economy and border protection policies. 

1. The economy - the main question is who's going to pay back the debt, and who's going to have the largest surplus? Despite the fact that any economist with any credibility (including Joseph Stiglitz and the RBA) acknowledges that Australia's government deficit is not a problem, and if no one payed it back, it would have virtually no affect on the economy; this becomes a moot point. But then it's a question of who can you trust to manage the economy? Both parties have shown equal competence (when you take a bipartisan approach) because they've both had very similar policies (which each party has vehemently denied for political reasons), thus it's also a moot point. So when it comes to the economy, both parties are competent, yet they want to stake the whole election on it! 
2. Boarder protection and stopping the boats - since neither party has been able to conclusively stop the boats, and since the boats only make up 4% of all asylum seeker arrivals, this shouldn't be a big issue. But xenophobia and fear make good campaigns, plus it's easier to tweet STOP THE BOATS. The main difference is East Timor or Nauru (Labor/Coalition respectively), but if you want a completely different option, then the Greens are for community processing, which is what we do for the 96% of all asylum seekers who arrive by plane. 
3. The environment - Labor are wanting to build community consensus by having a talkfest (National citizens assembly) and maybe sometime in the future have an emissions trading scheme. The Coalition are going to have a Standing Green Army (will this be able to invade New Zealand?) of volunteers planting trees and scrubbing coal or something equally as ludicrous as Labor's 'group talk with butcher paper' solution. But the Coalition is also wanting to give financial incentives to businesses who reduce their carbon emissions. Though whether it's an ETS or incentive scheme, it's going to cost money. The Greens are still advocating for a hardline ETS, and despite the fact they may hold the balance of power, it's unlikely it'll ever pass. 
4. Hospitals/Schools/Childcare/Mental health - both parties have shown some interest in these areas, and have surprisingly from both sides, committed more funding. The coalition is all about handing over power/money to the hospitals and principles' of schools, where Labor is about national standardisation and control. Considering the fiasco with the pink batts scheme, this may not be a wise move. However giving free reign to whoever is in charge of an institution, as the Coalition would like, opens up the opportunity for local incompetency. 
5. Indigenous Affairs/Gay marriage/Community Housing/Arts and Science etc - either ignored, condemned, or barely mentioned. More debate and policies over these issue may still come, but it's unlikely. The Greens are aiming to bring some of these issues into the overall debate in this last week, although the chances of them ever becoming serious issues at this stage, is highly unlikely. 

How you should vote! 

I could tell you how to vote, but I won't. Everyone has their own views about politics, policies and issues, and that should be respected. Though when you do find a party/candidate you like, don't vote for them because an ad told you so or because you voted for them before. Justify the reasons why you like them (or don't like the rest) and take a minute to find out more about their polices. 

Though as a side note: if you're in a safe 'blue ribbon' seat, for the House of Representatives ballot, I encourage you to put the current candidate last. Don't vote for the safe incumbent!!! The more marginal your seat is, the more likely your electorate will be pork-barreled and receive election attention. And if this election has highlighted anything, marginal seats are the places to be.

So don't forget to vote this Saturday, 21st August (8am-6pm).