Only in Australian Politics

Where else would you ever hear claims of the Prime Minister doing dodgy deals over a second hand ute? Yes, it has been a great month for Australian politics, as MP's sling their last hand full of mud before the winter break.

So what is the issue?

In a nutshell: The Government has a scheme (called OzCar) where it gives financial assistance to struggling car dealers. The opposition alleged there was an email stating that Kevin Rudd recommended giving assistance to an Ipswich car dealer, and that details of such a deal were faxed to Wayne Swan's home. Malcolm Turnbull called for Rudd and Swan to resign, and Rudd called for Turnbull to produce the evidence or resign. No evidence was produced, and after an investigation by the government and the AFP, it was found that the email was a fake. But the mud continues to fly.

So while accusations and mudslinging continue, it appears that no heads are going to roll. There was no substantial evidence to prove that Rudd had given preferential treatment to the Ipswich dealer. The AFP cleared Swan from receiving the email/notification of the deal, plus it was also a fake. Turnbull was clever from the start, by claiming that he never saw the email, so he could accuse Rudd and Swan all he liked.

But aside from this, the timing of these accusations were perfect. Too perfect. The CPRS is about to be put through the Senate, and it appears that it is not going to go through. The Greens are demanding greater cuts, the Liberals lower cuts, and Steve Fielding has to be different, and so is denying climate change (partially anyway). The Liberals are wanting to have a united front when it comes to this particular policy, as they were crucified on this subject at the previous election. So the whole ute/OzCar/email fiasco may not just be muddying the politicians, it may be trying to distract the public from any political 'meltdown' over this piece of legislation.

The sooner this mess is cleaned up, the better! But I wonder, who's got the ute?

LINKS

The Age - Email a fake

ABC - AFP confirm OzCar email

Peter Costello - the right time

Peter Costello, while arguably being one of the strongest on the political field, only ever managed to come in second place. It's just a matter of right place, wrong time.

He may be remembered for his book, smug smile, leadership fights with John Howard (and Malcolm Turnbull) but I will remember him for being "all tip and no iceberg" (Paul Keating). While that quip may be funny and true in a sense, I also think that it is a bit sad. Maybe instead of not having an iceberg, people just didn't see it or take notice of it.

The praise for being the longest serving treasurer, having a massive surplus, setting up the Australian economy to withstand the credit crisis blah blah blah blah.......etc goes on (and will appear to go on) forever. But while there also seems to be as many people who will not sing his praises, Peter manages to come out of this debacle relatively unscathed. It is one of the qualities that I think many people overlook.

Peter never managed to get into the leadership position he wanted, not because he wasn't a good politician, but because he was there at the wrong time. Costello managed to use Downer as a pedestal to position himself as deputy to John Howard, but that was a dead end. Howard, political bias aside, was a true politician. He held a safe seat, led a strong coherent party and was the second longest serving PM of Australia. But Costello could never challenge that massive support that Howard had, even if he wanted to. The Liberal party was fully behind Howard, and so was Costello. But towards the end when the political sands started to change, the Liberal party and politicians didn't, and so they lost. Costello was prepared to change (and held his own views which he later published in his memoirs), but didn't, and rightly couldn't challenge, when he didn't have the support for it. A classic case of being in the right place, at the wrong time.

By the time the Liberal Party crumbled, Costello could see that he himself could not pick up the pieces, and rightly didn't want to be the Liberal party maid. But when someone picked up the sharp and raw pieces instead (and managed to hemorrhage off the political sphere - Brendon Nelson) it reassembled in a way that would be difficult for Costello to gain a support in, similar to Kevin Rudd's (or even Howard's). And even if he did take Leader of the Opposition, the chances that he would take office as the PM would have been very slim. Kevin Rudd has massive support, Costello was tied to a very unpopular leader, and the Liberal Party still didn't appear to be coherent enough on certain policies to gain greater public confidence, which was previously lost. Another case of right place, wrong time.

So I think it is good that Peter now chooses to step out of the political sphere. He made policies that greatly helped our economy, and was prepared to back policies and ideas that would have helped out economy even more. He made valuable contributions to Australia through international forums, and was widely respected in academic circles.

So my hat is off to Peter Costello. Wayne Swan I thought said the best true words about Peter Costello - "while we may have almost always had robust disagreements...I think I'm going to miss him" Peter, I hope that you get to your right place the right time.

LINKS
All Tip and No Iceberg - The Age
Peter Costello - Wikipedia
Peter Costello won't contest another election - The Age

Change in an unchanging state

The one thing that most analysts can predict about North Korea, is that it is unpredictable. And often they are right.

Change is about to come to North Korea, whether we or they like it or not. Kim Jong-il is slowly dying due to obesity and alcoholism. Ironic isn't it...the might of the US, the UN or even the western world couldn't push Kim off his perch of power, but now he is going to silently slide off with a bottle of cognac in his hand.

The son he has chosen to succeed him (reportedly) is the son most like him. They supposedly share the same interests and look alike. Even though he is the youngest son (out of 3), he was the only son not to have been disgraced by embracing western culture and delights. So Kim Jong-un (pictured as a boy) is going to be daddy Kim's protege. So while it may just appear that North Korea is going to have a new leader with an 'un' rather than 'il', it couldn't be further from the truth.

Firstly, like any leader who comes into power, they have to prove they are fit for the job. There is no exception to the dictatorial rule of North Korea. So while 'daddy' may have laid out future plans for Kim Jong-un, 'un' will need to make plans of his own. The communist party of North Korea will be greatly shaken up when their 'dear leader' dies. They will want action to be taken, they will want change. Kim Jong-il was and is seen as a competent leader by most within the party, but those factions that saw him otherwise will let their voices be heard before he is put in the ground. Kim Jong-un will have to prove to the party that he is up to being the leader of North Korea. So there will be guaranteed issues arise within the government itself.

Secondly, the international pressure put on Kim Jong-un will be enormous. The world will see this as a new opportunity to open talks with the secluded North. He will have to react to that, because the UN and US will exploit his official appointment if they are to take any further action against the North. Kim Jong-un may side with the moderates within the government, and choose to improve relations. But he could just as easily do the opposite, and officially declare and start a small nuclear war. He will have to make decisions and take action, because the world will be moving, even if he chooses to stay politically still.

And lastly, even if there is no internal political shake up, or if the world just sits back and watches, there will be guaranteed change. North Korea will have their own "Obama moment", whether they like it or not. And the reason this will occur is because it is what the 'dear leader' taught Kim Jong-un. Vanity. This little protege won't be able to resist making his own changes. It could be turning the state into a capitalist market economy, or just redecorating the wallpaper. He was bred to be vain, to think of himself, and so he will act using his personal judgements, not his fathers. Whatever way he chooses to differ from his fathers rule, we can hope that he chooses the right path, and not redecorate.

Ultimately, the North is going to have a shake up when Kim Jong-il's takes his last bow and falls off his perch. (unlike his father, Kim Il-sung, who was like a "Norwegian blue" parrot, Kim Jong-il is not nailed to his perch) Everyone will push their own agenda, to try and influence the successor's decisions. So while we manage to predict the possible outcomes, we manage to come to the conclusion that the actions of the the North, are unpredictable.

LINKS:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8078324.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8078562.stm

North Korea - a very naughty boy

If you haven't watched Monty Pythons The life of Brian, you must. Beg, borrow, steal, do almost anything to get your hands on a copy, it's worth it.

If you've seen the movie, you will most likely remember this memorable quote "He's not the messiah, he's a very naughty boy." This very same quote can be easily applied to the actions of North Korea.

Kim Jong-il (and the eternal deceased leader, Kim Il-sung) have managed to convince enough (if not most) of the population of North Korea that they are doing a good job. While the whole culture of North Korea evolves around the notion that they are a) the centre of the universe b) have more power than the west and c) are on the 'right' side of the war, the rest of the world looks on and sees the truth. So apart from broadcasting The life of Brain onto every TV set in North Korea, the west is unable to show the people of North Korea what their leader really is.

One of the reasons Kim Jong-il remains in power, is by displaying to the people of North Korea the power of the government and their country. So by firing off missiles and making the earth tremor because of a nuclear bomb test, it is quite effective at demonstrating the power of the government and socialism. This demonstration of power also attracts the worlds attention. While the North may be perceived as acting like a little child throwing a tantrum to get the worlds attention, this demonstration of power may have different meanings.

Who are they demonstrating their power to, and how are they demonstrating it? They have shown to the world they have nuclear material and are technologically capable of turning it into a rudimentary bomb - so their actions could be an advertisement.

By demonstrating that they are a powerful nation, are they requesting more respect from the world? They may want special bilateral sit down talks with the US (as they have wanted in the past), so they can put their demands past the UN and straight to arguably the most powerful state?

Or alternatively, is Kim Jon-Il just a crackpot leader with death wish for his country?

While we can sit and hypothesize and analyse the actions of North Korea, what we can't do, and haven't been able to do, is control those actions. We may not know exactly why they are doing what they are doing, but we can predict that the North is greatly unpredictable and uncontrollable. The key to fixing this rogue state may not be what the rest of the world can do, but what the people of North Korea can do!