The one thing that most analysts can predict about North Korea, is that it is unpredictable. And often they are right.Change is about to come to North Korea, whether we or they like it or not. Kim Jong-il is slowly dying due to obesity and alcoholism. Ironic isn't it...the might of the US, the UN or even the western world couldn't push Kim off his perch of power, but now he is going to silently slide off with a bottle of cognac in his hand.
The son he has chosen to succeed him (reportedly) is the son most like him. They supposedly share the same interests and look alike. Even though he is the youngest son (out of 3), he was the only son not to have been disgraced by embracing western culture and delights. So Kim Jong-un (pictured as a boy) is going to be daddy Kim's protege. So while it may just appear that North Korea is going to have a new leader with an 'un' rather than 'il', it couldn't be further from the truth.
Firstly, like any leader who comes into power, they have to prove they are fit for the job. There is no exception to the dictatorial rule of North Korea. So while 'daddy' may have laid out future plans for Kim Jong-un, 'un' will need to make plans of his own. The communist party of North Korea will be greatly shaken up when their 'dear leader' dies. They will want action to be taken, they will want change. Kim Jong-il was and is seen as a competent leader by most within the party, but those factions that saw him otherwise will let their voices be heard before he is put in the ground. Kim Jong-un will have to prove to the party that he is up to being the leader of North Korea. So there will be guaranteed issues arise within the government itself.
Secondly, the international pressure put on Kim Jong-un will be enormous. The world will see this as a new opportunity to open talks with the secluded North. He will have to react to that, because the UN and US will exploit his official appointment if they are to take any further action against the North. Kim Jong-un may side with the moderates within the government, and choose to improve relations. But he could just as easily do the opposite, and officially declare and start a small nuclear war. He will have to make decisions and take action, because the world will be moving, even if he chooses to stay politically still.
And lastly, even if there is no internal political shake up, or if the world just sits back and watches, there will be guaranteed change. North Korea will have their own "Obama moment", whether they like it or not. And the reason this will occur is because it is what the 'dear leader' taught Kim Jong-un. Vanity. This little protege won't be able to resist making his own changes. It could be turning the state into a capitalist market economy, or just redecorating the wallpaper. He was bred to be vain, to think of himself, and so he will act using his personal judgements, not his fathers. Whatever way he chooses to differ from his fathers rule, we can hope that he chooses the right path, and not redecorate.
Ultimately, the North is going to have a shake up when Kim Jong-il's takes his last bow and falls off his perch. (unlike his father, Kim Il-sung, who was like a "Norwegian blue" parrot, Kim Jong-il is not nailed to his perch) Everyone will push their own agenda, to try and influence the successor's decisions. So while we manage to predict the possible outcomes, we manage to come to the conclusion that the actions of the the North, are unpredictable.
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Very good - I like the bit about the Norweigan Blue parrot.
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