A very slow succession

It's been a long time coming, but it finally may be here. Kim Jong il appears to be stepping down and installing his youngest son, Kim Jong Un. For many years, King Jong Il's poor health and reckless nuclear ambitions have indicated such a transition was imminent; but nothing ever materialised. Though a couple of months ago, Chinese media sources reported the creation of a statue of Kim Jong Il. There are many statues of Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il's father and technically, still the ruler of North Korea. Though they were only erected after his death. This is because North Korean juche culture stipulates that statues of leaders can only be built and displayed after they've died. So either Kim Jong Il is shaking things up in the north, or he's finalising his affairs before steps down (or dies).

I've reported before on the future leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, but this time, his succession finally appears to be occurring. The health of Kim Jong Il has been like a roller coaster ride. One day he's reported to be seriously ill after a stroke, the next he is about to die of pancreatic cancer, and then a few months after never being seen, he meets up with Bill Clinton to negotiate the release of US journalists. Being the mysterious leader of one of the most secretive states in the world appears to be one of his greatest accomplishments. He's accredited with transforming the North into rogue nuclear state, however North Korea has no ability to project that power any further than South Korea. It's numerous nuclear tests and sinking of the Cheonan have angered it's closest and most powerful ally, China. Following North Korea's latest nuclear tests, which were in clear defiance of international law and UN condemnation, China cut the transmission line between it and Pyongyang. This resulted in around 80% of North Korea being plunged into darkness. China, usually the moderator between the western world and the North, actually took an active step to prevent North Korea from exercising its nuclear power, even at the possibility of creating social and political instability. China and the North have always had a love/hate relationship, but with a new leader soon to take charge, that relationship will be critical in ensuring a peaceful transition.

Aid being given to North Korea has been in a steady decline since 2005. Defying international law and acting like a recalcitrant cretin with nuclear ambitions does that. But with more famine and death being caused by natural disasters and consistent North Korean government neglect and mismanagement, more aid is being offered. Previous aid agreements, most notably between US president Bill Clinton and North Korea, saw the closure and abandonment of the North's nuclear reactors...for a while. It appears that any attempts by any international institution or government to quell the North's nuclear aims, has proven fruitless. Carrots don't tempt the North to do good, and the using the stick would result in war. Though there is one exception to this rule: China. It's China who not only keeps the North's few lights running, but it's entire economy as well. It's North Korea's largest trading partner, political ally and sympathiser. It's China who is either going to make or break this succession.

The main thing China wants is regional stability, hence it's warning to the North about playing too much with the nukes. So it's obviously going to accept Kim Jong Un's rule, just to prevent a regime collapse and 24 million refugees flooding across the boarder. But North Korea is still stubborn. It doesn't want China to micro manage all of its affairs, run its economy and plumb the land for all the resources it has got. Similarly, China sees the North as an inefficient, unstable state with an economy going nowhere. Under a new leader, I'll be China who gets the undivided attention of Chang Sung Taek (Kim Jong Un's uncle) and Kim Jong Un himself. This leadership change is the perfect time for China to capatilise on new trade relations; ones that encourage industry, more open markets, more free flowing of information. It's these small steps, that may help stabilise the North by making it less reliant on nuclear power to prop up its regime.

This hypothesis really does fall short thought when you look at it in the context of Iran. But then again, there's no super power "mother country" sitting next door to Iran, telling it what to do. North Korea is at its most politically unstable point in decades. Kim Jong Un isn't being paraded around as a national hero just yet. The pomp and grandeur being delayed is just a sign of ineffective and unstable government, let alone bad event management. So for all it may be worth, this very slow succession in North Korea could turn out to be an opportunity for China to make inroads into this recluse state, to the benefit of all.

Links:
Third Kim lucky? - The Economist
The unconference - The Economist

US watches 'leadership process' in North Korea - AFP

South Korea Offers Aid to North - Wall Street Journal

North Korea, in Secret, Moves Toward Anointing a New Kim - Time